TRANSKRYPCJA VIDEO

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Hi everyone, this is Ira Fey and I thought it might be nice to do a video analyzing the special blue and red tiles for the climb up Mount Doom. And I have created a simulator, it's available to everyone, the URL is irafey. com slash wotr underscore mordor dot php and you can play around with it, there are a bunch of different settings. I've put some sample settings in here so we can try and analyze it in some way. So what I should notice, what I should note is the current step is one, so we're starting at the beginning of the track. Eye damage we're assuming is three.

So this is obviously variable, but we want the simulator to have some value so I've chosen three, I feel like that's probably a reasonable guess. This golem value is how many damaging tiles the fellowship has to experience before golem becomes active. And then this is the current hunt pool, so I have one of each tile plus four eyes. So that assumes I think seven tiles drawn on the way to mordor, maybe that's a little aggressive, maybe I don't know exactly what you find in your games, what a reasonable number of tiles to be drawn is before the fellowship declares in mordor.

I picked seven, so one of the zeros, two of the ones, one of the twos, two of the threes. And this is just sort of the basic setup and we're running the simulation 10,000 times and you can see that the character dice that we would expect the fellowship to need to take is about seven and a half character dice to move all the way up mordor, which makes sense because all the way up mt. Doom, because about half of these tiles are reveals. And maybe we're going to get golem and so maybe some of these will turn into not being reveals.

And so we need and it doesn't matter if we're revealed on the very last step. So that's why roughly seven and a half character dice you can see about 2. 8 reveals and a total of 10. 5 corruption. Obviously the eyes are going to vary, and this does not use golems ability so I just don't have that checked. So this is just sort of a baseline I wanted to pick some sort of baseline without this assumes you have no red and no blue tiles in the pool. This is about what you get. So I wanted to see okay what happens if we add the best blue tile.

If we add the negative to the file of glad real. And what you notice is I'm just going to switch back and forth here for a little bit. This is back to the baseline. So look at the character dice. This is a baseline 7. 4 and this is with the file 7. 2 so not a big difference in terms of the number of character dice you need and that's also because the number of reveals does not change a lot 2. 8 to 2. 5 it goes down a little bit, but not very much.

The thing that I want you to notice is the corruption so the corruption jumps almost by 2 we go from 10. 5 on average to 8. 7 on average. And the reason why just to think about the math for a second is the average of these existing tiles in the hunt pool not counting the negative 2, but the average of these tiles is around 2. Because you have 0 plus 1 plus 1 plus 2 plus 2 plus 3 and then all of these eyes are threes.

So 4 times 3 you take all of that and then you divide by the number of tiles to get the average to get the average just add everything up and then divide by the number of things you added together. So in this case we're dividing by 10 and if you average that out it's about 2. So the average corruption damage of this hunt pool that we've sort of selected is 2 and then if you add this negative 2 to it the statistics given that there are 10 tiles in here now this makes the 11th tile.

If we're drawing the tiles 5 tiles out of this bag about half the time a little I think a little less than half the time we're going to get this negative 2. And so half the time we're going from an average of 2 to negative 2 that's a difference that's a swing of 4 corruption. But we're only hitting it half the time and so that's why when you take 10,000 trials and you average them all out we get about a difference of from 10. 5 to about 8 a little more than 8 and a half.

So that's roughly the math I think this simulator is working properly I mean there could be bugs in this but I think it's about right. And I think that's useful to know it's sort of intuitive. Okay well I put a negative 2 in and that's why it goes down by 2 but actually what's happening is it's a difference of positive 2 to negative 2 but you're only hitting it half the time. So that's that's something to think about because half the time it's not going to make any difference at all. And half the time it's going to make a swing of 4.

So that's that's that's pretty big it's not exactly just a flat 2. So okay. And I think actually just to think about the strategy for a second that's actually a good thing because there are going to be plenty of games where a difference of 2 corruption won't make or break you. But the difference of 4 corruption really could make a difference in the outcome of the game. All right so let's look at what happens if we go here's the baseline again and then this is if instead of adding the negative 2 we add the I stop the red tile. And you can see that the character dice needed goes from 7.

4 to 8. 2 we've increased that by by point 8 almost a full extra die that the fellowship is going to need to make it up the to Mount Doom the reveals goes up a little bit. And the corruption goes up from 10 and a half to almost 12 so almost one and a half extra corruption. And I guess that means that's an extra a whole extra tile that you're getting out of it. So that's why I think half the time you're getting an extra tile and that extra tile is about 2.

So so I guess I would expect that to have only gone up by one because half of the time I'm going to need an extra tile. But I think it also since this is an eye that also increased the average a little bit. And I guess this is a little less than it didn't really go up by one and a half it went up by 1. 4. So so I don't know exactly what that means how you should be thinking about that if I want to increase the fellowship and how long it's going to take them.

You know I just by putting by playing this I stop in putting it in the pool if the pool has 10 tiles in it starting with then I'm going to increase their corruption by maybe about one and a half. And I'm causing them almost to spend one extra die. Is that worth it for me to spend a card and a die to cost them an extra die and a little corruption. You know a lot of times I'll play a card that just does one corruption and feel fine about it. This is not only causing them a corruption or maybe a little more but also costing them a die.

So that's that's probably a good that's probably a good investment most of the time. Obviously if this pool is even bigger than it has less of an impact. So so that's something to think about. All right let's take a look at what if we add everything in. So this is a situation where we have all of the blue tiles and all the red tiles and let's compare it to the baseline. So this is the baseline and this is if we add every all of the red and all the blue tiles. I just wanted to give some example. So if you notice the this is the baseline.

Let's look at the character that's needed baseline seven point four eight point six with everything in. So the number of character that is needed goes up by a lot because we're hitting the stop tiles. So that's what's going on. But our total average number of reveals does not go up by that much. And in fact it even goes down slightly because the pool overall is has fewer reveals in it. Now of course we might need to reveal ourselves using Gollum's ability if the corruption spikes. But you can see the corruption on average remember on average actually goes down a little bit. This is the baseline ten and a half.

And this is the this is the average with all the tiles in it. So it goes down a little bit in this case with these pools. Obviously there are a lot of permutations. You can explore it a bit for yourself. And then the last permutation that I wanted to add for this baseline example is what if we go from this this exact same situation with all of the tiles in it and also add Mithra coating sting. So this is with Mithra coating sting and you can see this is this is the baseline with everything in. This is Mithra coating sting.

You can see the character dies drop by almost a full and the corruption goes down by about one and a half. And the rules obviously the logic for Mithra coating sting can vary and what's strategic and best for you and your situation obviously varies a lot. This simulation has Mithra coating sting only used if you draw a red tile. The first time you draw a red tile Mithra coating sting is used and otherwise it's not used at all. So you know that logic I think could be more subtle. There are obviously a lot of factors involved in when to use it. But that's that's what this simulation has. It's obviously a model.

It's a simplification. But OK so that's hopefully useful to give you a sense of what the tiles might be worth in maybe a baseline case. Maybe this is overly optimistic for how useful they'll be. If you feel like they're often not seven tiles drawn before you get to Mordor then then this is overly optimistic. They will have even less impact than what I've just described. Now what if we consider a situation where the hunt was crazy getting to Mordor Gollum. You already have Gollum when you're starting up Mordor and the only thing we have left is a single zero a single one and a single two and then four eyes.

So this I pick this because the baseline is pretty close to the other baseline. So I'm just going to compare baselines. This is seven point four character dice and this is seven point three. So these are basically the same. The corruption is slightly higher on average with this starting setup. Again eyes on average are going to be worth three. So but roughly these two baselines are the same with the exception that just the pool is smaller. We have three fewer tiles in the pool is a brutal hunt getting to Mordor. We had a bunch of strongholds.

We got a bunch of tiles that got drawn extra that were from you know or patrol or something like that. So here we go. This is we're going to add the file to it and see what happens. You can see it go down. So corruption goes from ten point seven to eight point one. So this is the baseline. This is the with with the file in it. And let's think about what the average of this is. This is zero plus one plus two. That's that's three obviously. And then the I tiles four times three is twelve. So that's fifteen on average.

We have to divide this by seven fifteen divided fifteen divided by seven is a little more than two. So on average this hunt pool is about the same. So the reason why we're seeing more of a difference here is not because the hunt pool was was so much more brutal. And therefore the relative average of getting a normal average hunt tile compared to the negative two is bigger. What's happening here? The reason why we can explain this as being a bigger differential is the reason why we might expect which is just there are fewer tiles in the pool. And therefore we're just that much more likely to draw this negative two.

So let's compare this baseline to now we're going to add the I stop the red tile and see what happens. You can see we went from seven point three characterized needed on average to eight point five. So more than one die. We're costing the fellowship more than one die. And the corruption is going from ten point seven to twelve point six almost to two full corruption. So and obviously if eyes are worth more or less depending on the time you draw it then that will have an impact. But you know this is basically I think intuitively what we would expect.

But often when I'm you know thinking about the value of a card a shadow I'm thinking well how much am I going to expect to do. You know if I am I going to play candles of corpses that you know on average is going to do one point five corruption. Is that is that worth it. And often I assume in Gollum is not guide. Often I will play that and it'll do you know so on average one point five corruption. So thinking about how the value of these red tiles is is useful it really varies depending on the size of the hunt pool.

So that's that's what you I think we should be thinking about. How big do we expect the hunt pool to be by the time we get to Mordor. That's that's going to be one of a major factor in the value of these red and blue tiles. So this is an example of that small starting pool but with all of the tiles compared to the baseline. The the corruption again goes down a bit but the character dice needed goes up by almost one point seven. So almost two extra character dice because we're just hitting those red tiles you know almost guaranteed.

And we can look at the what happens if we add to this example to add Mithril. You can see we save a character die and we save the corruption by what is that. That's about one point eight or saving one point eight corruption and one character die. What's interesting about that is so that was one point eight corruption and one character die. Compare that to the Mithril example in in the other baseline in a bigger hunt pool. We save a little less a little less than one character die. So that's I'm not I'm not exactly sure why that's happening.

I guess I guess it increases by avoiding the red tile or that much more likely to draw a blue tile. So I guess that's I guess that's what's happening here. I'm not I'm not exactly sure why. We would see more of a difference with Mithril with a smaller pool. Yeah I guess it's just you're that much more likely to get get one of the good tiles because the pool is smaller. So I hope that you I hope this has been useful for you. I don't I don't think there's anything really mind blowing here. You sort of know that the red and blue tiles are good.

But trying to quantify it I think can be useful and thinking about how much of an impact it will be. And I also think just keeping in mind that the the size of the pool is going to be a pretty major factor in the impact of these tiles. So I hope you can play around with it. I'll include the URL to the simulator in the link below the video. And if you have any suggestions for other games or other topics you want me to cover I welcome it. And if you have any you know fun stories about drawing red or blue tiles or any additional thoughts please please share them in the comments below.

Thanks so much. .